Toronto Maple Leafs Phil Kessel Trade

I know usually I write about the crap I do but today I thought I'd write about something that has been the talk of Leaf Nation for some time now. As you know I'm a Leaf fan living in Montréal so I don't get to discuss the Leafs very often. If I do find a hockey fan they usually either know little about the Leafs and don't have much of an opinion or they just don't like them and only want to talk about the Habs. So for this season I've been reading article after article about the Phil Kessel trade and having brief discussions via email about it. Last night I met up with a former co-worker who is a Leaf fan so of course we spoke at length of the Kessel trade. Then this morning I read and article written my Steve Simmons trashing the trade. I figured since I don't get to discuss the topic too often I would just outline my opinion here as I don't agree with the majority that the trade was a poor one and let me explain why.

First let's all agree that Phil Kessel is a very young player(22) and that he's going to be a great goal scorer for us. He had 36 goals last year and 23 for us so far this year with 16 to go. Let's also not forget the fact the he missed training camp and the first 11 games due to an injury. Commonly people agree that missing training camp puts a player behind the eight ball so to speak so had Kessel not missed camp and played in those 11 games let's say he would at least already be over 30 goals. He's going to be a consistent goal scorer for us there is no doubt about that.

Now I'm not saying that we didn't pay a huge price for Kessel but for a young guy like him you have to pay a huge price or not get him. So we gave up 2 first round picks and a 2nd. Burke said he expected this team to play for a playoff spot so what he thought he was giving away was a mid round 1st and next year who knows maybe an even lower pick. Instead he's probably going to give them a high 1st and next year maybe a mid round 1st. I thought the team would be better too but they're not. Right now they've won two straight and got points in their last 4, if they can continue that the Bruins will probably not get a top five pick. But let's say they do. There's a lottery so even if the Leafs finish 3rd last or 2nd last the Bruins may not get a top two pick and if they don't get a top two pick they will not be getting a player near Kessel's quality and next year ideally the Leafs will improve and the Bruins won't get a top two pick then either. So let's admit it's possible the Bruins will get 3 potentially sound players that don't come close to Kessel's skill level, in which case the Leafs win the trade hands down. Not let's say they get Taylor Hall, the player expected to go first overall, they get him but probably only two potentially solid players with the other two picks. Picks I may add that won't be solid players for a few years. Hall of course may produce right away. If the Bruins get Hall we've lost the trade for sure but what are the odds even at this point that they'll get Hall? Less than 50% easily.

Now let's look at what else Burke has done, this will give us an idea of why he was willing to give up 2 first rounders. He's signed a number of college players and traded a couple guys looking for big contracts for young players. Now all of a sudden we have, Bozak, Hanson, Stalberg, Caputi, Gustavsson plus a bunch of other young guys that were already on the team. We're a team that could be good soon. If these guys work out, we sign a vet or two maybe trade Kaberle for another young player, we could be looking at a playoff team next year and in 2 or 3 years we could be watching a contender. That at least is what Burke's plan is and personally I like it.

Many teams build contenders from the draft sure. People say Pittsburgh, Malkin and Crosby. Hall is not Crosby for one but whatever, I agree building from the draft has been proven successful but it's not the only way to win a cup. Burke wants to win now so he goes and he signs all this young guys. If we wait for this year's first round pick and next year's first round pick to develop we're looking at 5 years from now until we contend and there's no guarantee that these first round picks are going to be good picks or good players, it's a crap shoot that we have to wait 4-5 years to see the outcome. Kessel is good now and he will be for awhile. We didn't just pay to get Kessel we paid to turn a 4-5 year wait to a 2-3 year wait. We'll have lost the trade in player for player value but the extra that we gave is payment to make a 5 year plan a 3 year plan, worth it.

Let's say we didn't make the trade and we don't get a top five pick. Now we have a guy that will take a few years to develop and no Kessel. Is that better than what we have now? There is also the possibility that we get into Chicago type salary cap trouble in which we have all these great guys that want big contracts at the same time, let's not forget who owns the Leafs. Granted that's a good problem to have as Darryl put it, but it's also a good problem for other teams to have when we're looking to acquire such players. This team is not going to make a cup run with the young guys listed above and Kessel, it's going to be them plus at least one or two other big names. Burke is going to continue to sign young free agents to replace draft picks and some of them are going to turn out to be solid players just like some drafts picks are going to turn out to be solid players.

I like the direction Burke is taking this team in and I don't mind giving up the draft picks, at least not yet. Let's wait to see where we finish and what else Burke does to make next year's team better. Then we can really know if we won or lost this trade but at the least consider that Kessel is a proven 1st rounder, Hall and others are not. People in Ottawa were pretty excited about Daigle and the Leafs have a long list of horrid first round players themselves.

The youth movement is still on, which many fans have been begging for, we're just not taking the slow draft route for it. Stalberg had two goals last night, Caputi two assists, Bozak and Kessel scored the other two goals. Get used to hearing those names.

In this case you're up to date on the crap I think.